VARStats is a football analytics service that turns match statistics into probabilities. For 100+ leagues, European cups included, it estimates the chances of results, goal totals, corners and cards, and explains each estimate: team form, days of rest, fixture congestion, the referee's record. The model is a Dixon-Coles rating fitted separately for each league, with time-decayed form, home advantage, shot quality (xG, shots on target) and a referee adjustment for cards; probabilities are calibrated weekly against played matches. The site keeps an honest record: how many picks came through, where the model over- or under-promises, and what it does not do — no guaranteed wins. Available on the web in 9 languages, as an Android app and as a Telegram bot.
Features
• Probabilities for every match in 100+ leagues, European cups included: result, goal totals, corners and cards
• Each estimate explained: team form, days of rest, fixture congestion, referee record
• Dixon-Coles model fitted per league, with xG, shots on target and a referee adjustment for cards
• Calibrated weekly against played matches
• Public track record: how many forecasts came through, updated daily
• Pick of the day: the model's most confident forecast, with its history
• League and team statistics: goals, corners, cards, shots, fouls, offsides
• Head-to-head, form and league table on every match page
• Favourite teams and match reminders in your own time zone
• 9 languages: English, Russian, Turkish, Uzbek, Kazakh, Spanish, German, French, Italian
• Web, Android app and Telegram bot
Use Cases
• Check how likely each result is before a match you plan to watch
• Compare leagues and teams by goals, corners, cards or shots
• See whether a team is tired: days of rest and fixture congestion
• Find out how strict the referee is before a big game
• Follow your favourite teams and get reminders in your time zone
• Prepare match previews, articles or podcasts with ready-made numbers
• Settle a debate with friends using real statistics, not opinions
• Track how often the model was right before trusting its numbers
Comments
Hi Fazier! I'm Merdan, the maker of VARStats. I built it because football sites usually give you either raw stats or a single "prediction" — and never tell you how often they were right. VARStats turns match statistics into probabilities for results, goals, corners and cards across 100+ leagues, explains each number (form, rest days, fixture congestion, the referee), and keeps a public record of how many forecasts actually came through. The model is a Dixon-Coles rating fitted per league, recalibrated every week against played matches. It works on the web in 9 languages, as an Android app and as a Telegram bot. I'd love your feedback: what would make the match page more useful for you?
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Comments
Hi Fazier! I'm Merdan, the maker of VARStats. I built it because football sites usually give you either raw stats or a single "prediction" — and never tell you how often they were right. VARStats turns match statistics into probabilities for results, goals, corners and cards across 100+ leagues, explains each number (form, rest days, fixture congestion, the referee), and keeps a public record of how many forecasts actually came through. The model is a Dixon-Coles rating fitted per league, recalibrated every week against played matches. It works on the web in 9 languages, as an Android app and as a Telegram bot. I'd love your feedback: what would make the match page more useful for you?
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